August Cold-Rolled Stainless Steel Imports Plummeted, Exports Hit Two-Year High with 9.48% Growth [SMM Analysis]

Imports: According to SMM statistics, China's stainless steel imports in August 2024 were 106,800 mt, down 14.72% MoM and 44.65% YoY. The total stainless steel imports from Indonesia in August were 71,800 mt (excluding stainless steel scrap), down 48.26% YoY but up 1.17% MoM. By form, hot-rolled stainless steel imports from Indonesia saw a significant increase in August, up 13,400 mt MoM, while cold-rolled stainless steel imports decreased sharply by 17,000 mt. This was mainly due to the reduced production from overseas cold-rolled mills in July due to maintenance, resulting in lower production and volumes. After resuming production in August, the production ramped up, but the shipment schedules were not accounted for. It is expected that the cold-rolled stainless steel import volume from Indonesia will recover in September.

Exports: According to SMM statistics, China's total stainless steel exports in August 2024 were 557,500 mt, hitting a two-year high, up 9.48% MoM and 38.71% YoY. By form, plate and coil exports increased by 59,100 mt MoM, up 20.3%, narrow strip exports increased by 5,900 mt, up 20.32% MoM, profile increased by 3,700 mt, up 11.67% MoM, and pipe increased by 8,700 mt, up 14.84% MoM. By country, the largest increase in exports in August was to Brazil, up 11,700 mt MoM, a 166.21% increase. Exports to Turkey increased by 10,200 mt, up 29.18% MoM, to Europe by 11,200 mt, up 29.18% MoM, and to the UAE by 5,100 mt, up 36.87% MoM. Currently, the end of the summer break in Europe has led to a recovery in operating rates among end-users, increasing demand for Chinese stainless steel imports. Additionally, with Indonesian cold-rolled mills reducing supply due to maintenance, reliance on Chinese stainless steel has further increased. In countries like Pakistan, Japan, and South Korea, the end of the summer off-season has led to some growth in stocking for September. However, with the US Fed's interest rate cuts leading to higher domestic export prices, the likelihood of domestic stainless steel mills reducing production to support prices amid losses has increased. Furthermore, the introduction of various anti-dumping policies against Chinese stainless steel poses significant pressure on future exports.